Chinese New Year 2027: how to plan your China shipments without a stockout
Chinese New Year is a logistics event, not just a holiday
Each year, around mid-February, Chinese manufacturing comes to a halt. Not three quiet public-holiday days: four to six weeks of slowed or stopped production, port congestion, and a freight-rate spike that can swallow an entire margin. For 2027, the peak lands on Wednesday, February 17 — the Year of the Goat.
An importer in Los Angeles, Birmingham, or Mumbai who only opens the calendar in mid-January is already late. Containers leaving Shanghai, Ningbo, or Shenzhen for Long Beach, Felixstowe, or Nhava Sheva post their last viable slots by the final week of January. Miss that window, and you are waiting until late March for any meaningful resupply — six weeks dry.
This guide walks through the official 2027 calendar, the actual last-sailing and last-flight dates by lane, the freight-rate curve before and after the holiday, and the six-step playbook we recommend to TRADE-COST clients.
2027 official calendar: what closes and when
China's State Council publishes an annual holiday schedule. For 2027, the dates communicated through official notices are:
| Date | Event | On-the-ground impact |
|---|---|---|
| February 7-9, 2027 | Chunyun migration begins | Migrant workers start traveling, ~30% absenteeism in factories |
| February 10-12, 2027 | Progressive factory shutdown | Yield <50%, no new orders accepted |
| February 13-16, 2027 | Pre-New Year | Most factories closed, ports at peak congestion (rush) |
| February 17, 2027 | Lunar New Year (Goat) | Full stop, ports at 20-30% capacity |
| February 17-23, 2027 | Statutory holiday (7 days) | Closed: factories, customs, banks, forwarders |
| February 24-28, 2027 | Official restart | Partial return: 40-60% of workers back in week one |
| March 1-15, 2027 | Stabilization | Nameplate capacity typically reached by mid-March |
The key point: the legal holiday is 7 days, but the economic shutdown is 25 to 40 days. The gap is driven by chunyun, the world's largest annual human migration (the Ministry of Transport reports roughly 9 billion person-trips per year), which empties factories of their migrant workforce 7 to 10 days before the official date.
Last sea and air departure dates by lane
Below are the latest reasonable vessel ETD or flight cut-off dates for goods to clear before the closure window:
| Lane | Mode | Recommended ETD cut-off | Typical transit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai → Long Beach | FCL ocean | Jan 28-30, 2027 | 14-18 days |
| Shenzhen → New York | FCL ocean (Panama) | Jan 22-25, 2027 | 28-35 days |
| Ningbo → Felixstowe | FCL ocean | Jan 25-28, 2027 | 30-38 days |
| Shanghai → Nhava Sheva | FCL ocean | Jan 28-30, 2027 | 12-18 days |
| Yiwu → Houston | LCL consolidation | Jan 18-20, 2027 | 35-45 days (with consolidation) |
| Hong Kong → Los Angeles | Air freight | Feb 5-7, 2027 | 3-5 days |
| Shenzhen → London Heathrow | Air freight | Feb 5-7, 2027 | 5-7 days |
These dates assume goods are already produced and the export file is complete (commercial invoice, packing list, draft B/L, certificate of origin where required). Add 7 to 10 days upstream for pre-shipment inspections (PSI), quality testing, or sanitary certificates.
Freight rate curve before and after CNY
Multi-year history lets us anticipate the 2027 curve. The peak builds in two phases: a steady climb starting the third week of January, then a sharp acceleration in the 10 days before the holiday.
Ocean: the Pre-CNY Rush
On Trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe corridors, spot rates (SCFI Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, FBX Freightos Baltic Index) typically show:
- January (weeks 2-3): +10 to +20% versus November, as carriers fill slots and apply mid-January GRI (General Rate Increase)
- January (week 4) to February (week 1): +25 to +40% versus baseline, with PSS (Peak Season Surcharge) applied by MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, COSCO, ONE
- Final-week peak (D-7 to D-3): spot rates can hit +50 to +70% versus baseline
- March: rapid drop, returning to -10 to -20% of baseline by April (low season)
Annual fixed-rate contracts (NAC or BCO contracts) shield against spot volatility, but they are rare under 200-300 TEU/year. Most SMB importers ride the spot market.
Air: capacity goes first
Air freight follows a slightly delayed but more violent curve. Belly-cargo capacity on long-haul flights from Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Guangzhou is heavily booked from the second half of January. Typical increase HKG-LAX: +30 to +60% versus November baseline, with some carriers shifting to 'contract only' (no spot bookings) in the final week. Integrated express (DHL, FedEx, UPS) remains operable but applies seasonal surcharges of 25 to 40%.
Worked examples: financial impact of a delay
Example 1: US apparel importer, 40' FCL Shanghai-Long Beach
Baseline FCL 40' Nov 2026 ≈ USD 2,400
Estimated rate week 5 Feb 2027 (rush) ≈ USD 3,600 (+50%)
Cost per container increase: USD 1,200
Across 8 containers/year: USD 9,600 in CNY spike alone
Mitigation: pull 3 shipments forward to Nov-Dec 2026 = net savings ≈ USD 4,500
The importer who plans 4 months out typically captures 30 to 50% of the CNY surcharge as savings by smoothing orders into the autumn.
Example 2: UK consumer-electronics importer, 6-week delay
Order placed late December 2026 — production ready Feb 5, 2027 (too late)
First post-CNY sailing: March 3, 2027
Arrival Felixstowe: April 2-5, 2027
Mother's Day window (Mar 14, UK) missed entirely
Estimated revenue loss: 15-25% of Q1 turnover
Many western retail seasons (Mother's Day, Easter, spring fashion drops) fall in the post-CNY void. Missing the window means missing the season — another reason to plan four months ahead.
Six-step CNY 2027 playbook
- September-October 2026: audit safety stock by SKU and compute coverage need through end-March 2027 (6 weeks post-CNY). Confirm with supplier the last possible production date before shutdown.
- November 2026: place critical orders with 30% deposit. Favor vertically integrated suppliers controlling their workforce. Lock vessel slots with your forwarder (early booking) where possible.
- Mid-December 2026: last reasonable window for standard ocean orders. Beyond this date the cut-off risk is material. Consider sea/air mix for high-rotation SKUs.
- January 15-25, 2027: finalize pre-shipment inspections (PSI), certifications, and customs documents. Any factory not yet shipping by this date is locked out until March 1.
- February 2027 (weeks 2-4): defensive mode. No new orders. Customer-side communication on Q1 lead times. Track residual stock.
- March 1-15, 2027: phased restart. Do not launch big new orders before March 10: product quality drops mechanically in the first two weeks (new or retrained workers).
Compare your landed cost with and without the CNY rush
Run a November 2026 versus February 2027 simulation on the TRADE-COST calculator to quantify the savings of pulling orders forward.
Run calculation →Bottom line: CNY is won or lost four months ahead
Chinese New Year 2027 is known, dated, and predictable. Yet every year thousands of importers across the US, UK, and India end up out of stock by mid-February for lack of forward planning. The logic is simple: backward-plan from March 1, 2027 (effective restart), apply transit times, and lock in orders by mid-November 2026 at the latest for critical ocean flows.
To go further, see our complete guide to importing from China, our LCL versus FCL comparison to fine-tune your transport mode, and our breakdown of BAF and CAF surcharges that stack on top of PSS during the CNY rush.
Frequently asked questions
When exactly is Chinese New Year 2027 and how long are factories really closed?+
Chinese New Year 2027 (Year of the Goat) falls on Wednesday, February 17, 2027. The official statutory holiday declared by China's State Council runs seven days, from February 17 to February 23, 2027. In practice, however, factories shut down 7 to 10 days earlier so migrant workers can travel home (the chunyun migration starts around February 7), and full production typically resumes 2 to 4 weeks after the holiday depending on the region. Plan for 25 to 40 days of slowed or halted production. The hardest-hit zones are Guangdong (Shenzhen, Dongguan) and Zhejiang (Yiwu, Ningbo), where workforces are predominantly migrant.
When should I place my order to ship before factories close?+
For a standard FCL ocean shipment China to US West Coast or Europe, the last reasonable vessel ETD is around January 25-30, 2027 (Shanghai-Long Beach transit ≈ 14-18 days; Shanghai-Le Havre ≈ 30-35 days). That implies finished, palletized goods around January 18-22, so an order placed and 30% deposit paid by mid-November 2026 for catalog products, or early October 2026 for bespoke or tooled products. Air freight gives you a later window (5-8 days transit) but capacity is fully booked from the first week of February and rates spike accordingly.
Will freight rates really go up, and by how much?+
Yes. Over the 4 to 6 weeks before CNY, ocean carriers run a 'Pre-CNY Rush' on Trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe lanes. Spot rates on Shanghai-Long Beach and Shanghai-Rotterdam typically climb 20 to 40 percent above the November baseline, sometimes 50 to 70 percent in the final two weeks. Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) and General Rate Increases (GRI) are systematically reactivated in mid-January. Air freight follows the same curve with 30 to 60 percent increases on HKG-LAX and HKG-FRA corridors. After CNY, rates fall fast through March and April as demand temporarily collapses.
My Chinese supplier says they can produce 'without interruption' through CNY. Is that credible?+
Treat with caution. A handful of vertically integrated factories with local (non-migrant) workforces — typically in Guangdong electronics, Chinese pharma, or some state-owned enterprises — do maintain reduced production through Spring Festival, but they are the exception. Rule of thumb: if your supplier did not proactively mention 'CNY continuity' before you asked, it is probably a sales promise. Ask for a detailed plan: how many workers on site, which lines run, what yield versus nominal capacity. Production at 30 percent capacity over five holiday days does not materially change your shipping schedule.
What if I'm out of stock by mid-February with nothing in transit?+
Three options, in order of escalating cost. (1) Source outside China for emergency replenishment: Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Turkey continue running through CNY and can often deliver in 2-4 weeks. (2) Buy from a US or EU stockist or distributor at lower margin but no stockout. (3) Air-express small batches once factories restart (around March 1-10): cost is 6 to 10 times sea freight but caps the gap. For 2028, build CNY into your S&OP cycle starting in September. The cost of preparation is always lower than the cost of rupture.
Thomas Delaunay
Thomas focuses on landed-cost modeling and forwarder benchmarking. Previously a procurement lead at a mid-cap industrial importer, he builds the cost intelligence that powers TRADE-COST calculations.
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